The day SpaceX lists, 3 ETFs must buy $1.67B of it.
S-1 filed May 20, 2026 targeting Nasdaq ticker SPCX. Pricing June 11, first trade June 12. Targeting $1.75T valuation, raising up to $75B — would be largest IPO in history by both valuation and dollars raised. Musk retains 85.1% voting control via super-voting class. 2025 revenue $18.7B (Starlink $11.4B), $4.9B net loss. ~30% retail allocation via Robinhood, Fidelity, Schwab.
Base case: $1.75T (S-1 filing SEC EDGAR May 20, 2026; Goldman/MS/BofA/Citi/JPM syndicate). Use the slider to stress-test upside or downside scenarios.
Base case: 4%. Mega-IPOs typically float 5-15% initially. Lower float = higher demand vs supply imbalance.
Top 100 non-financial Nasdaq-listed stocks by market cap. Annual reconstitution in December. Quarterly rebalancing.
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| Ticker | Name | Old wt | New wt | Δ wt (bps) | $ outflow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA | 8.750% | 8.722% | -2.8 | -$91.0M |
| AAPL | Apple | 7.340% | 7.317% | -2.3 | -$76.4M |
| MSFT | Microsoft | 5.100% | 5.084% | -1.6 | -$53.1M |
| AMZN | Amazon | 4.720% | 4.705% | -1.5 | -$49.1M |
| MU | Micron Technology | 3.880% | 3.868% | -1.2 | -$40.4M |
| AVGO | Broadcom | 3.650% | 3.638% | -1.2 | -$38.0M |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Class A | 3.010% | 3.000% | -1.0 | -$31.3M |
| META | Meta Platforms | 2.890% | 2.881% | -0.9 | -$30.1M |
| TSLA | Tesla | 2.410% | 2.402% | -0.8 | -$25.1M |
| COST | Costco | 2.230% | 2.223% | -0.7 | -$23.2M |
Holds substantially all investable US equities. New IPOs added at quarterly rebalance after seasoning. Float-adjusted.
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| Ticker | Name | Old wt | New wt | Δ wt (bps) | $ outflow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA | 6.200% | 6.192% | -0.8 | -$37.9M |
| AAPL | Apple | 5.800% | 5.793% | -0.7 | -$35.4M |
| MSFT | Microsoft | 5.300% | 5.293% | -0.7 | -$32.4M |
| AMZN | Amazon | 3.400% | 3.396% | -0.4 | -$20.8M |
| GOOGL | Alphabet A+C | 3.200% | 3.196% | -0.4 | -$19.5M |
| META | Meta Platforms | 2.500% | 2.497% | -0.3 | -$15.3M |
| TSLA | Tesla | 1.800% | 1.798% | -0.2 | -$11.0M |
| BRK.B | Berkshire Hathaway | 1.500% | 1.498% | -0.2 | -$9.2M |
| AVGO | Broadcom | 1.400% | 1.398% | -0.2 | -$8.6M |
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase | 1.300% | 1.298% | -0.2 | -$7.9M |
Fast-track inclusion ~5 days after IPO if market cap is large enough. Held for ~2 years post-listing. Cap weight ~10%.
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| Ticker | Name | Old wt | New wt | Δ wt (bps) | $ outflow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM | Arm Holdings | 9.400% | 8.460% | -94.0 | -$1.7M |
| RDDT | 8.100% | 7.290% | -81.0 | -$1.5M | |
| KVYO | Klaviyo | 7.200% | 6.480% | -72.0 | -$1.3M |
| CRWV | CoreWeave | 6.800% | 6.120% | -68.0 | -$1.2M |
| FIG | Figma | 5.400% | 4.860% | -54.0 | -$972000 |
| BLSH | Bullish | 4.800% | 4.320% | -48.0 | -$864000 |
| KLAR | Klarna | 4.600% | 4.140% | -46.0 | -$828000 |
| CHYM | Chime | 4.100% | 3.690% | -41.0 | -$738000 |
| GEMI | Gemini | 3.800% | 3.420% | -38.0 | -$684000 |
| STUB | StubHub | 3.500% | 3.150% | -35.0 | -$630000 |
Six ETFs. Six different inclusion timelines.
Nasdaq listing + market cap easily clears Nasdaq-100 threshold. Fast-track entry possible if market cap exceeds existing constituent (top 25% rule).
Renaissance IPO ETF adds large US IPOs ~5 trading days after listing. Will likely enter as a top-3 holding given mega-cap size.
CRSP US Total Market includes all US-listed common stocks. Added at next quarterly rebalance (typ. ~30-90 day lag).
Multi-class structure historically blocks/delays inclusion (Snap precedent in 2017); Profitability requirement (4 consecutive profitable GAAP quarters) likely not met; Public float below 10% threshold
GICS Aerospace & Defense (Industrials sector). Excluded from VGT despite AI compute exposure.
Active fund — Cathie Wood's stated convictions strongly favor frontier-AI and space themes. Position size at PM discretion.
Three trades the inclusion math points to.
The largest IPO in history — by far
At $1.75T, SPCX dwarfs Saudi Aramco's record. QQQ ($327B AUM) and QQQM ($94B) become forced buyers — even at a tiny ~4% float, the entry weight in Nasdaq-100 is unprecedented. The IPO ETF (Renaissance) will cap-weight at 10% but SPCX likely dominates inclusion. First-day pop risk works against the inclusion trade — wait for the IPO ETF rebalance window.
The 4.3% float bottleneck
$75B raise / $1.75T valuation = ~4.3% public float. That fails S&P 500's 10% float minimum mechanically, blocking SPY/IVV/VOO inclusion at the first review. ETFs forced to buy must absorb their pro-rata share from an artificially restricted supply. Watch borrow rates spike in the first month — short interest will be extreme.
Space sector instant rerating
SPCX immediately becomes the comparable for every space-adjacent ticker: RKLB, ASTS, PL, IRDM, EchoStar, Globalstar. ITA (US Aerospace & Defense ETF) and UFO (Procure Space ETF) face forced rebalancing. The sympathy bid on these names typically peaks 2-3 days post-pricing then fades — that's the trade.