The day Discord lists, 3 ETFs must buy $66.5M of it.
Long-rumored. 200M+ MAU. Last private round at $15B; secondary market trades higher. Kalshi prediction markets put 2026 IPO odds at 45%.
Base case: $25.00B (Press reports, Kalshi prediction markets). Use the slider to stress-test upside or downside scenarios.
Base case: 10%. Mega-IPOs typically float 5-15% initially. Lower float = higher demand vs supply imbalance.
Top 100 non-financial Nasdaq-listed stocks by market cap. Annual reconstitution in December. Quarterly rebalancing.
Show full dilution math →
| Ticker | Name | Old wt | New wt | Δ wt (bps) | $ outflow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA | 8.750% | 8.749% | -0.1 | -$3.3M |
| AAPL | Apple | 7.340% | 7.339% | -0.1 | -$2.7M |
| MSFT | Microsoft | 5.100% | 5.099% | -0.1 | -$1.9M |
| AMZN | Amazon | 4.720% | 4.719% | -0.1 | -$1.8M |
| MU | Micron Technology | 3.880% | 3.880% | -0.0 | -$1.4M |
| AVGO | Broadcom | 3.650% | 3.650% | -0.0 | -$1.4M |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Class A | 3.010% | 3.010% | -0.0 | -$1.1M |
| META | Meta Platforms | 2.890% | 2.890% | -0.0 | -$1.1M |
| TSLA | Tesla | 2.410% | 2.410% | -0.0 | -$895534 |
| COST | Costco | 2.230% | 2.230% | -0.0 | -$828648 |
Holds substantially all investable US equities. New IPOs added at quarterly rebalance after seasoning. Float-adjusted.
Show full dilution math →
| Ticker | Name | Old wt | New wt | Δ wt (bps) | $ outflow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA | 6.200% | 6.200% | -0.0 | -$1.4M |
| AAPL | Apple | 5.800% | 5.800% | -0.0 | -$1.3M |
| MSFT | Microsoft | 5.300% | 5.300% | -0.0 | -$1.2M |
| AMZN | Amazon | 3.400% | 3.400% | -0.0 | -$741818 |
| GOOGL | Alphabet A+C | 3.200% | 3.200% | -0.0 | -$698182 |
| META | Meta Platforms | 2.500% | 2.500% | -0.0 | -$545455 |
| TSLA | Tesla | 1.800% | 1.800% | -0.0 | -$392727 |
| BRK.B | Berkshire Hathaway | 1.500% | 1.500% | -0.0 | -$327273 |
| AVGO | Broadcom | 1.400% | 1.400% | -0.0 | -$305455 |
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase | 1.300% | 1.300% | -0.0 | -$283636 |
Fast-track inclusion ~5 days after IPO if market cap is large enough. Held for ~2 years post-listing. Cap weight ~10%.
Show full dilution math →
| Ticker | Name | Old wt | New wt | Δ wt (bps) | $ outflow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM | Arm Holdings | 9.400% | 9.008% | -39.2 | -$705000 |
| RDDT | 8.100% | 7.763% | -33.8 | -$607500 | |
| KVYO | Klaviyo | 7.200% | 6.900% | -30.0 | -$540000 |
| CRWV | CoreWeave | 6.800% | 6.517% | -28.3 | -$510000 |
| FIG | Figma | 5.400% | 5.175% | -22.5 | -$405000 |
| BLSH | Bullish | 4.800% | 4.600% | -20.0 | -$360000 |
| KLAR | Klarna | 4.600% | 4.408% | -19.2 | -$345000 |
| CHYM | Chime | 4.100% | 3.929% | -17.1 | -$307500 |
| GEMI | Gemini | 3.800% | 3.642% | -15.8 | -$285000 |
| STUB | StubHub | 3.500% | 3.354% | -14.6 | -$262500 |
Six ETFs. Six different inclusion timelines.
Nasdaq listing + market cap easily clears Nasdaq-100 threshold. Fast-track entry possible if market cap exceeds existing constituent (top 25% rule).
Renaissance IPO ETF adds large US IPOs ~5 trading days after listing. Will likely enter as a top-3 holding given mega-cap size.
CRSP US Total Market includes all US-listed common stocks. Added at next quarterly rebalance (typ. ~30-90 day lag).
Multi-class structure historically blocks/delays inclusion (Snap precedent in 2017); Profitability requirement (4 consecutive profitable GAAP quarters) likely not met
GICS classification likely outside Information Technology. Excluded from VGT.
Active fund — Cathie Wood's stated convictions strongly favor frontier-AI and space themes. Position size at PM discretion.
Three trades the inclusion math points to.
Reddit comparable trade
Direct comp is RDDT. Discord has lower revenue but higher engagement metrics. Watch for revenue-per-MAU comparisons in the S-1. Discord's gaming-adjacent positioning may command a premium.
Consumer social rotation
Discord's listing would force a re-rating of social/consumer internet: SNAP, PINS, RDDT, META. Watch for capital rotation between mature platforms and growth names.
Gaming ecosystem play
Discord's gamer demographic creates correlation with gaming names: RBLX, U, EA, TTWO. Thematic gaming ETF (HERO) would add at meaningful weight on inclusion.