The day Databricks lists, 4 ETFs must buy $479.5M of it.
$5.4B revenue with 65% YoY growth and FCF positive. Most 'ready' of the megacaps. Profitable, which matters for S&P 500.
Base case: $134.00B (Reported financials, $5B funding round). Use the slider to stress-test upside or downside scenarios.
Base case: 12%. Mega-IPOs typically float 5-15% initially. Lower float = higher demand vs supply imbalance.
Top 100 non-financial Nasdaq-listed stocks by market cap. Annual reconstitution in December. Quarterly rebalancing.
Show full dilution math →
| Ticker | Name | Old wt | New wt | Δ wt (bps) | $ outflow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA | 8.750% | 8.744% | -0.6 | -$20.9M |
| AAPL | Apple | 7.340% | 7.335% | -0.5 | -$17.5M |
| MSFT | Microsoft | 5.100% | 5.096% | -0.4 | -$12.2M |
| AMZN | Amazon | 4.720% | 4.717% | -0.3 | -$11.3M |
| MU | Micron Technology | 3.880% | 3.877% | -0.3 | -$9.3M |
| AVGO | Broadcom | 3.650% | 3.647% | -0.3 | -$8.7M |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Class A | 3.010% | 3.008% | -0.2 | -$7.2M |
| META | Meta Platforms | 2.890% | 2.888% | -0.2 | -$6.9M |
| TSLA | Tesla | 2.410% | 2.408% | -0.2 | -$5.8M |
| COST | Costco | 2.230% | 2.228% | -0.2 | -$5.3M |
Holds substantially all investable US equities. New IPOs added at quarterly rebalance after seasoning. Float-adjusted.
Show full dilution math →
| Ticker | Name | Old wt | New wt | Δ wt (bps) | $ outflow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA | 6.200% | 6.198% | -0.2 | -$8.7M |
| AAPL | Apple | 5.800% | 5.798% | -0.2 | -$8.1M |
| MSFT | Microsoft | 5.300% | 5.298% | -0.2 | -$7.4M |
| AMZN | Amazon | 3.400% | 3.399% | -0.1 | -$4.8M |
| GOOGL | Alphabet A+C | 3.200% | 3.199% | -0.1 | -$4.5M |
| META | Meta Platforms | 2.500% | 2.499% | -0.1 | -$3.5M |
| TSLA | Tesla | 1.800% | 1.799% | -0.1 | -$2.5M |
| BRK.B | Berkshire Hathaway | 1.500% | 1.500% | -0.0 | -$2.1M |
| AVGO | Broadcom | 1.400% | 1.400% | -0.0 | -$2.0M |
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase | 1.300% | 1.300% | -0.0 | -$1.8M |
Sector classification matters. GICS reclassified Amazon, Meta, Google away from Tech years ago. SpaceX likely classified as Industrials/Aerospace, NOT Tech — so likely excluded from VGT despite being innovative.
Show full dilution math →
| Ticker | Name | Old wt | New wt | Δ wt (bps) | $ outflow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA | 18.400% | 18.384% | -1.6 | -$15.1M |
| AAPL | Apple | 15.100% | 15.087% | -1.3 | -$12.4M |
| MSFT | Microsoft | 14.200% | 14.187% | -1.3 | -$11.7M |
| AVGO | Broadcom | 6.100% | 6.095% | -0.5 | -$5.0M |
| ORCL | Oracle | 2.900% | 2.897% | -0.3 | -$2.4M |
| CRM | Salesforce | 2.400% | 2.398% | -0.2 | -$2.0M |
| CSCO | Cisco | 2.100% | 2.098% | -0.2 | -$1.7M |
| AMD | AMD | 2.000% | 1.998% | -0.2 | -$1.6M |
| ACN | Accenture | 1.900% | 1.898% | -0.2 | -$1.6M |
| ADBE | Adobe | 1.800% | 1.798% | -0.2 | -$1.5M |
Six ETFs. Six different inclusion timelines.
Nasdaq listing + market cap easily clears Nasdaq-100 threshold. Fast-track entry possible if market cap exceeds existing constituent (top 25% rule).
Renaissance IPO ETF adds large US IPOs ~5 trading days after listing. Will likely enter as a top-3 holding given mega-cap size.
CRSP US Total Market includes all US-listed common stocks. Added at next quarterly rebalance (typ. ~30-90 day lag).
Multi-class structure historically blocks/delays inclusion (Snap precedent in 2017)
GICS classification likely Information Technology — would be added at MSCI rebalance.
Active fund — Cathie Wood's stated convictions strongly favor frontier-AI and space themes. Position size at PM discretion.
Three trades the inclusion math points to.
Most index-ready of the megacap pipeline
Databricks is the only mega-IPO with both profitability and 4+ profitable quarters, meaning S&P 500 inclusion is plausible at the first review post-listing — unlike OpenAI or Anthropic. This is a rare 'eligible from day one' setup.
Snowflake comparable trade
Direct public comp is SNOW. At Databricks' growth rate (65% YoY), market would likely award a premium multiple to SNOW. Pair trade: long DBX vs short SNOW on listing day captures the multiple expansion.
AI data layer rerating
Databricks' listing forces a rerating of the entire AI/data stack: SNOW, MDB, ESTC, NET, DDOG. Watch for sympathy moves and ETF rebalancing across IGV and CLOU.