The day Kraken lists, 4 ETFs must buy $93.6M of it.
Confidential S-1 filing reported in Q1 2026. Coinbase comparison would put valuation at ~$15–20B based on revenue multiples.
Base case: $20.00B (Bloomberg reports of confidential filing). Use the slider to stress-test upside or downside scenarios.
Base case: 12%. Mega-IPOs typically float 5-15% initially. Lower float = higher demand vs supply imbalance.
Top 100 non-financial Nasdaq-listed stocks by market cap. Annual reconstitution in December. Quarterly rebalancing.
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| Ticker | Name | Old wt | New wt | Δ wt (bps) | $ outflow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA | 8.750% | 8.749% | -0.1 | -$3.1M |
| AAPL | Apple | 7.340% | 7.339% | -0.1 | -$2.6M |
| MSFT | Microsoft | 5.100% | 5.099% | -0.1 | -$1.8M |
| AMZN | Amazon | 4.720% | 4.719% | -0.1 | -$1.7M |
| MU | Micron Technology | 3.880% | 3.880% | -0.0 | -$1.4M |
| AVGO | Broadcom | 3.650% | 3.650% | -0.0 | -$1.3M |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Class A | 3.010% | 3.010% | -0.0 | -$1.1M |
| META | Meta Platforms | 2.890% | 2.890% | -0.0 | -$1.0M |
| TSLA | Tesla | 2.410% | 2.410% | -0.0 | -$859713 |
| COST | Costco | 2.230% | 2.230% | -0.0 | -$795502 |
Requires 4 consecutive profitable quarters, $20.5B+ float-adjusted market cap, primary US listing, public float >=10%. Multi-class structures historically blocked (e.g. Snap initially).
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| Ticker | Name | Old wt | New wt | Δ wt (bps) | $ outflow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEMPRA | SRE | 0.090% | 0.090% | -0.0 | -$26681 |
Holds substantially all investable US equities. New IPOs added at quarterly rebalance after seasoning. Float-adjusted.
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| Ticker | Name | Old wt | New wt | Δ wt (bps) | $ outflow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA | 6.200% | 6.200% | -0.0 | -$1.3M |
| AAPL | Apple | 5.800% | 5.800% | -0.0 | -$1.2M |
| MSFT | Microsoft | 5.300% | 5.300% | -0.0 | -$1.1M |
| AMZN | Amazon | 3.400% | 3.400% | -0.0 | -$712145 |
| GOOGL | Alphabet A+C | 3.200% | 3.200% | -0.0 | -$670255 |
| META | Meta Platforms | 2.500% | 2.500% | -0.0 | -$523636 |
| TSLA | Tesla | 1.800% | 1.800% | -0.0 | -$377018 |
| BRK.B | Berkshire Hathaway | 1.500% | 1.500% | -0.0 | -$314182 |
| AVGO | Broadcom | 1.400% | 1.400% | -0.0 | -$293236 |
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase | 1.300% | 1.300% | -0.0 | -$272291 |
Six ETFs. Six different inclusion timelines.
Nasdaq listing + market cap easily clears Nasdaq-100 threshold. Fast-track entry possible if market cap exceeds existing constituent (top 25% rule).
Renaissance IPO ETF adds large US IPOs ~5 trading days after listing. Will likely enter as a top-3 holding given mega-cap size.
CRSP US Total Market includes all US-listed common stocks. Added at next quarterly rebalance (typ. ~30-90 day lag).
Meets S&P 500 mechanical criteria. Committee discretion still applies.
GICS classification likely outside Information Technology. Excluded from VGT.
Active fund — Cathie Wood's stated convictions strongly favor frontier-AI and space themes. Position size at PM discretion.
Three trades the inclusion math points to.
Coinbase comparable
Direct comp is COIN. At $20B, Kraken would price at lower revenue multiple than COIN at IPO ($75B). Watch the S-1 for the trading volume / take rate disclosure — that's the multiple-determining metric.
Crypto ETF inclusion
BITQ, BLOK, and DAPP thematic ETFs would add Kraken at meaningful weight. AUM is small (~$1.5B combined) but concentration creates meaningful percentage moves on inclusion.
Regulatory clarity premium
Kraken's US listing requires SEC blessing of its trading model. A successful IPO would itself be a regulatory positive for the entire crypto sector. Sympathy moves in COIN, HOOD likely.