The day OpenAI lists, 4 ETFs must buy $2.89B of it.
Capped-profit structure conversion + IPO would be largest tech IPO ever. Microsoft's economic interest (49% of profits up to a cap) complicates ownership picture and S&P inclusion math.
Base case: $1.00T (Reported $730B–$1T secondary market valuation). Use the slider to stress-test upside or downside scenarios.
Base case: 10%. Mega-IPOs typically float 5-15% initially. Lower float = higher demand vs supply imbalance.
Top 100 non-financial Nasdaq-listed stocks by market cap. Annual reconstitution in December. Quarterly rebalancing.
Show full dilution math →
| Ticker | Name | Old wt | New wt | Δ wt (bps) | $ outflow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA | 8.750% | 8.710% | -4.0 | -$130.1M |
| AAPL | Apple | 7.340% | 7.307% | -3.3 | -$109.1M |
| MSFT | Microsoft | 5.100% | 5.077% | -2.3 | -$75.8M |
| AMZN | Amazon | 4.720% | 4.699% | -2.1 | -$70.2M |
| MU | Micron Technology | 3.880% | 3.862% | -1.8 | -$57.7M |
| AVGO | Broadcom | 3.650% | 3.633% | -1.7 | -$54.3M |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Class A | 3.010% | 2.996% | -1.4 | -$44.7M |
| META | Meta Platforms | 2.890% | 2.877% | -1.3 | -$43.0M |
| TSLA | Tesla | 2.410% | 2.399% | -1.1 | -$35.8M |
| COST | Costco | 2.230% | 2.220% | -1.0 | -$33.1M |
Holds substantially all investable US equities. New IPOs added at quarterly rebalance after seasoning. Float-adjusted.
Show full dilution math →
| Ticker | Name | Old wt | New wt | Δ wt (bps) | $ outflow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA | 6.200% | 6.189% | -1.1 | -$54.1M |
| AAPL | Apple | 5.800% | 5.789% | -1.1 | -$50.6M |
| MSFT | Microsoft | 5.300% | 5.290% | -1.0 | -$46.3M |
| AMZN | Amazon | 3.400% | 3.394% | -0.6 | -$29.7M |
| GOOGL | Alphabet A+C | 3.200% | 3.194% | -0.6 | -$27.9M |
| META | Meta Platforms | 2.500% | 2.495% | -0.5 | -$21.8M |
| TSLA | Tesla | 1.800% | 1.797% | -0.3 | -$15.7M |
| BRK.B | Berkshire Hathaway | 1.500% | 1.497% | -0.3 | -$13.1M |
| AVGO | Broadcom | 1.400% | 1.397% | -0.3 | -$12.2M |
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase | 1.300% | 1.298% | -0.2 | -$11.3M |
Sector classification matters. GICS reclassified Amazon, Meta, Google away from Tech years ago. SpaceX likely classified as Industrials/Aerospace, NOT Tech — so likely excluded from VGT despite being innovative.
Show full dilution math →
| Ticker | Name | Old wt | New wt | Δ wt (bps) | $ outflow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA | 18.400% | 18.298% | -10.2 | -$94.0M |
| AAPL | Apple | 15.100% | 15.016% | -8.4 | -$77.2M |
| MSFT | Microsoft | 14.200% | 14.121% | -7.9 | -$72.6M |
| AVGO | Broadcom | 6.100% | 6.066% | -3.4 | -$31.2M |
| ORCL | Oracle | 2.900% | 2.884% | -1.6 | -$14.8M |
| CRM | Salesforce | 2.400% | 2.387% | -1.3 | -$12.3M |
| CSCO | Cisco | 2.100% | 2.088% | -1.2 | -$10.7M |
| AMD | AMD | 2.000% | 1.989% | -1.1 | -$10.2M |
| ACN | Accenture | 1.900% | 1.889% | -1.1 | -$9.7M |
| ADBE | Adobe | 1.800% | 1.790% | -1.0 | -$9.2M |
Six ETFs. Six different inclusion timelines.
Nasdaq listing + market cap easily clears Nasdaq-100 threshold. Fast-track entry possible if market cap exceeds existing constituent (top 25% rule).
Renaissance IPO ETF adds large US IPOs ~5 trading days after listing. Will likely enter as a top-3 holding given mega-cap size.
CRSP US Total Market includes all US-listed common stocks. Added at next quarterly rebalance (typ. ~30-90 day lag).
Multi-class structure historically blocks/delays inclusion (Snap precedent in 2017); Profitability requirement (4 consecutive profitable GAAP quarters) likely not met
GICS classification likely Information Technology — would be added at MSCI rebalance.
Active fund — Cathie Wood's stated convictions strongly favor frontier-AI and space themes. Position size at PM discretion.
Three trades the inclusion math points to.
The largest tech IPO ever — by far
At a $1T listing, OpenAI would enter Nasdaq-100 as a top-10 holding instantly. The forced buying from QQQ + QQQM ($420B+ combined) is mechanical and unprecedented. No tech IPO in history has triggered this scale of passive demand.
The Microsoft entanglement trade
Microsoft's 49% economic interest in OpenAI profits (up to a cap) means OpenAI's listing materially affects MSFT's mark-to-market exposure. Watch for MSFT to potentially divest pre-IPO or for analysts to bake in the implicit value transfer.
AI sector ETF rebalancing
Thematic AI ETFs (AIQ, ROBO, BOTZ, CHAT) have ~$8B combined AUM and concentrated holdings. OpenAI inclusion would force ~5-10% rebalancing across their books. Smaller existing holdings (Palantir, C3.ai, SoundHound) face sharp dilution.