The day Cerebras Systems lists, 3 ETFs must buy $73.4M of it.
AI chip maker. Refiled amended S-1 May 4, 2026 at $115–125/share targeting Nasdaq under ticker CBRS. $1B Tiger-led round in Feb 2026 anchors the $23B valuation. Most concrete near-term IPO of the group.
Base case: $23.00B (Amended S-1 filing May 4, 2026; SEC EDGAR). Use the slider to stress-test upside or downside scenarios.
Base case: 12%. Mega-IPOs typically float 5-15% initially. Lower float = higher demand vs supply imbalance.
Top 100 non-financial Nasdaq-listed stocks by market cap. Annual reconstitution in December. Quarterly rebalancing.
Show full dilution math →
| Ticker | Name | Old wt | New wt | Δ wt (bps) | $ outflow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA | 8.750% | 8.749% | -0.1 | -$3.6M |
| AAPL | Apple | 7.340% | 7.339% | -0.1 | -$3.0M |
| MSFT | Microsoft | 5.100% | 5.099% | -0.1 | -$2.1M |
| AMZN | Amazon | 4.720% | 4.719% | -0.1 | -$1.9M |
| MU | Micron Technology | 3.880% | 3.880% | -0.0 | -$1.6M |
| AVGO | Broadcom | 3.650% | 3.650% | -0.0 | -$1.5M |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Class A | 3.010% | 3.010% | -0.0 | -$1.2M |
| META | Meta Platforms | 2.890% | 2.890% | -0.0 | -$1.2M |
| TSLA | Tesla | 2.410% | 2.410% | -0.0 | -$988670 |
| COST | Costco | 2.230% | 2.230% | -0.0 | -$914827 |
Holds substantially all investable US equities. New IPOs added at quarterly rebalance after seasoning. Float-adjusted.
Show full dilution math →
| Ticker | Name | Old wt | New wt | Δ wt (bps) | $ outflow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA | 6.200% | 6.200% | -0.0 | -$1.5M |
| AAPL | Apple | 5.800% | 5.800% | -0.0 | -$1.4M |
| MSFT | Microsoft | 5.300% | 5.300% | -0.0 | -$1.3M |
| AMZN | Amazon | 3.400% | 3.400% | -0.0 | -$818967 |
| GOOGL | Alphabet A+C | 3.200% | 3.200% | -0.0 | -$770793 |
| META | Meta Platforms | 2.500% | 2.500% | -0.0 | -$602182 |
| TSLA | Tesla | 1.800% | 1.800% | -0.0 | -$433571 |
| BRK.B | Berkshire Hathaway | 1.500% | 1.500% | -0.0 | -$361309 |
| AVGO | Broadcom | 1.400% | 1.400% | -0.0 | -$337222 |
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase | 1.300% | 1.300% | -0.0 | -$313135 |
Fast-track inclusion ~5 days after IPO if market cap is large enough. Held for ~2 years post-listing. Cap weight ~10%.
Show full dilution math →
| Ticker | Name | Old wt | New wt | Δ wt (bps) | $ outflow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM | Arm Holdings | 9.400% | 8.968% | -43.2 | -$778320 |
| RDDT | 8.100% | 7.727% | -37.3 | -$670680 | |
| KVYO | Klaviyo | 7.200% | 6.869% | -33.1 | -$596160 |
| CRWV | CoreWeave | 6.800% | 6.487% | -31.3 | -$563040 |
| FIG | Figma | 5.400% | 5.152% | -24.8 | -$447120 |
| BLSH | Bullish | 4.800% | 4.579% | -22.1 | -$397440 |
| KLAR | Klarna | 4.600% | 4.388% | -21.2 | -$380880 |
| CHYM | Chime | 4.100% | 3.911% | -18.9 | -$339480 |
| GEMI | Gemini | 3.800% | 3.625% | -17.5 | -$314640 |
| STUB | StubHub | 3.500% | 3.339% | -16.1 | -$289800 |
Six ETFs. Six different inclusion timelines.
Nasdaq listing + market cap easily clears Nasdaq-100 threshold. Fast-track entry possible if market cap exceeds existing constituent (top 25% rule).
Renaissance IPO ETF adds large US IPOs ~5 trading days after listing. Will likely enter as a top-3 holding given mega-cap size.
CRSP US Total Market includes all US-listed common stocks. Added at next quarterly rebalance (typ. ~30-90 day lag).
Multi-class structure historically blocks/delays inclusion (Snap precedent in 2017); Profitability requirement (4 consecutive profitable GAAP quarters) likely not met
GICS classification likely outside Information Technology. Excluded from VGT.
Active fund — Cathie Wood's stated convictions strongly favor frontier-AI and space themes. Position size at PM discretion.
Three trades the inclusion math points to.
The most concrete near-term trade
Cerebras refiled May 4, 2026 at $115-125/share, Nasdaq under ticker CBRS. This is the only listing in the universe with an actual filed S-1 and price range — every other name is speculation. IPO ETF inclusion is mechanical at ~5 days post-listing.
The G42 customer concentration risk
Cerebras' relationship with Abu Dhabi-backed G42 is both the bull and bear case. Federal review delayed the prior filing; resolution is now priced in. Watch the S-1 for customer concentration disclosure — that's where the asymmetric information lives.
AI chip basket trade
Cerebras provides the first pure-play 'NVIDIA alternative' for public investors. Sympathy moves likely in AMD, AVGO, MRVL. Specialty AI chip names (GFS, AEHR) may see speculative bid as the trade rotates downstream.