Supply releases on a schedule. Trade the schedule.
Modern mega-IPO lockups don't expire in one cliff — they release in tiered tranches tied to earnings, time elapsed, and stock performance. The schedule is public. The supply pressure is predictable. The tradable events are the gates between tranches.
Eligible insider unlock — 7% of eligible shares
Time-based tranche 1 of 5. Each releases 7% of eligible insider shares. Cumulative across all 5: 35% by day 135.
Where the unlock math forks in two.
SpaceX's S-1 conditions a bonus tranche on the stock trading at least 30% above the offer price by first earnings. That creates a binary event: if SPCX is above offer + 30% at Q2 earnings, an extra 10% of float hits the market. If not, those shares stay locked until Day 180. The market knows this — expect reflexive selling pressure approaching the threshold from above.
SpaceX lockup timeline — 9 tranches
From IPO to Day 180, eligible insider shares release in tiered tranches. Musk is excluded from accelerated release.
Short the unlock, cover the print.
The tiered structure means continuous supply pressure from day 70 onward, with three discrete spikes: Q2 earnings (day ~95), Q3 earnings (day ~155), and Day 180 expiry. The 30% performance threshold at Q2 earnings creates a binary trade — if SPCX is above offer+30%, an extra 10% of shares hits the market. Watch for reflexive selling pressure into that level.
Extreme borrow rate risk means: short demand is so concentrated that rates can exceed 50-100% annualized in the weeks before the unlock, and locate availability becomes the binding constraint on position sizing. Trade size accordingly.
Three trades the unlock schedule creates.
The performance-gate fade
If a tranche only unlocks when the stock is up >X% by an earnings date, the stock magnetically resists that threshold from above. Algorithmic shorts add pressure as the gate approaches. Trade: short into the gate from above, cover post-earnings. Avoid being long the stock through the threshold near earnings.
Earnings unlock as binary
Earnings-tied tranches (Q2 ~20%, Q3 ~28% for SPCX) create the largest single-day supply spikes. The earnings reaction is no longer just about results — it's results + supply. Standard playbook: skip the print, re-enter 3-5 trading days after as supply digests.
Rolling time-tranches = continuous borrow demand
The five 7% time-based tranches between days 70-135 mean continuous, low-grade selling pressure. Borrow rates stay elevated through the entire window — that's a tailwind for short positions and a headwind for long convexity. The vol crush trade (sell skew, sell strangles) works through the steady-state.