— The supply calendar
Every lockup. Every tranche. Sorted by date.
ETF inclusion creates demand. Lockup expiration creates supply. Combined, they form the post-IPO trading map. Below are all tracked unlock events across the pipeline.
Upcoming
87
days
Fri, Aug 21, 2026
SpaceX
Day 70 post-IPO
Mixed holders
7%of float
Time-based tranche 1 of 5. Each releases 7% of eligible insider shares. Cumulative across all 5: 35% by day 135.
107
days
Thu, Sep 10, 2026
SpaceX
Day 90 post-IPO
Mixed holders
7%of float
Time-based tranche 2 of 5. Rolling release window keeps continuous supply pressure rather than one cliff.
112
days
Tue, Sep 15, 2026
SpaceX
Day 95 post-IPO
Mixed holders
20%of float
Q2 2026 EARNINGS UNLOCK. Up to 20% of eligible insider shares release at first quarterly earnings as a public company. Tradable binary event — earnings date itself is the trigger.
112
days
Tue, Sep 15, 2026
SpaceX
Day 95 post-IPO
Mixed holders
10%of float
PERFORMANCE BONUS — additional 10% unlocks AT Q2 earnings ONLY IF SPCX trades at least 30% above the IPO offering price. Creates a tradable threshold around the offer + 30% level.
122
days
Fri, Sep 25, 2026
SpaceX
Day 105 post-IPO
Mixed holders
7%of float
Time-based tranche 3 of 5. Continued rolling supply.
137
days
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
SpaceX
Day 120 post-IPO
Mixed holders
7%of float
Time-based tranche 4 of 5.
152
days
Sun, Oct 25, 2026
SpaceX
Day 135 post-IPO
Mixed holders
7%of float
Time-based tranche 5 of 5. Last of the rolling 70-135 day releases.
172
days
Sat, Nov 14, 2026
SpaceX
Day 155 post-IPO
Mixed holders
28%of float
Q3 2026 EARNINGS UNLOCK. Largest single release before final expiry — 28% of eligible insider shares unlock at second quarterly earnings.
197
days
Wed, Dec 9, 2026
SpaceX
Day 180 post-IPO
Founder class
17%of float
FULL LOCKUP EXPIRY. Remainder of restricted shares (~17% base case, ~7% if performance bonus triggered at Q2) becomes freely tradable. Musk's founder shares — separately governed and the largest concentrated stake — are no longer locked, though governance and his stated long-hold posture make sales unlikely. Treat this as a structural-supply event, not a forecasted-sale event.
Past (reference)