The day Canva lists, 4 ETFs must buy $133.1M of it.
260M monthly active users, $3.3B ARR, 8 consecutive years of profitability, 100% YoY enterprise growth. Australian-domiciled. Dual NYSE/ASX listing reportedly considered. Goldman/Morgan Stanley lead.
Base case: $42.00B (Sep 2025 employee tender at $42B). Use the slider to stress-test upside or downside scenarios.
Base case: 10%. Mega-IPOs typically float 5-15% initially. Lower float = higher demand vs supply imbalance.
Top 100 non-financial Nasdaq-listed stocks by market cap. Annual reconstitution in December. Quarterly rebalancing.
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| Ticker | Name | Old wt | New wt | Δ wt (bps) | $ outflow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA | 8.750% | 8.748% | -0.2 | -$5.5M |
| AAPL | Apple | 7.340% | 7.339% | -0.1 | -$4.6M |
| MSFT | Microsoft | 5.100% | 5.099% | -0.1 | -$3.2M |
| AMZN | Amazon | 4.720% | 4.719% | -0.1 | -$2.9M |
| MU | Micron Technology | 3.880% | 3.879% | -0.1 | -$2.4M |
| AVGO | Broadcom | 3.650% | 3.649% | -0.1 | -$2.3M |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Class A | 3.010% | 3.009% | -0.1 | -$1.9M |
| META | Meta Platforms | 2.890% | 2.889% | -0.1 | -$1.8M |
| TSLA | Tesla | 2.410% | 2.410% | -0.0 | -$1.5M |
| COST | Costco | 2.230% | 2.230% | -0.0 | -$1.4M |
Holds substantially all investable US equities. New IPOs added at quarterly rebalance after seasoning. Float-adjusted.
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| Ticker | Name | Old wt | New wt | Δ wt (bps) | $ outflow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA | 6.200% | 6.200% | -0.0 | -$2.3M |
| AAPL | Apple | 5.800% | 5.800% | -0.0 | -$2.1M |
| MSFT | Microsoft | 5.300% | 5.300% | -0.0 | -$1.9M |
| AMZN | Amazon | 3.400% | 3.400% | -0.0 | -$1.2M |
| GOOGL | Alphabet A+C | 3.200% | 3.200% | -0.0 | -$1.2M |
| META | Meta Platforms | 2.500% | 2.500% | -0.0 | -$916364 |
| TSLA | Tesla | 1.800% | 1.800% | -0.0 | -$659782 |
| BRK.B | Berkshire Hathaway | 1.500% | 1.500% | -0.0 | -$549818 |
| AVGO | Broadcom | 1.400% | 1.400% | -0.0 | -$513164 |
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase | 1.300% | 1.300% | -0.0 | -$476509 |
Sector classification matters. GICS reclassified Amazon, Meta, Google away from Tech years ago. SpaceX likely classified as Industrials/Aerospace, NOT Tech — so likely excluded from VGT despite being innovative.
Show full dilution math →
| Ticker | Name | Old wt | New wt | Δ wt (bps) | $ outflow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA | 18.400% | 18.396% | -0.4 | -$3.9M |
| AAPL | Apple | 15.100% | 15.096% | -0.4 | -$3.2M |
| MSFT | Microsoft | 14.200% | 14.197% | -0.3 | -$3.0M |
| AVGO | Broadcom | 6.100% | 6.099% | -0.1 | -$1.3M |
| ORCL | Oracle | 2.900% | 2.899% | -0.1 | -$622533 |
| CRM | Salesforce | 2.400% | 2.399% | -0.1 | -$515200 |
| CSCO | Cisco | 2.100% | 2.100% | -0.0 | -$450800 |
| AMD | AMD | 2.000% | 2.000% | -0.0 | -$429333 |
| ACN | Accenture | 1.900% | 1.900% | -0.0 | -$407867 |
| ADBE | Adobe | 1.800% | 1.800% | -0.0 | -$386400 |
Six ETFs. Six different inclusion timelines.
Nasdaq listing + market cap easily clears Nasdaq-100 threshold. Fast-track entry possible if market cap exceeds existing constituent (top 25% rule).
Renaissance IPO ETF adds large US IPOs ~5 trading days after listing. Will likely enter as a top-3 holding given mega-cap size.
CRSP US Total Market includes all US-listed common stocks. Added at next quarterly rebalance (typ. ~30-90 day lag).
Multi-class structure historically blocks/delays inclusion (Snap precedent in 2017); Non-US domicile — S&P 500 requires US place of incorporation (blocks Canva, Revolut, etc.)
GICS classification likely Information Technology — would be added at MSCI rebalance.
Active fund — Cathie Wood's stated convictions strongly favor frontier-AI and space themes. Position size at PM discretion.
Three trades the inclusion math points to.
Adobe / Figma sympathy pair
Canva listing at $42B forces a re-valuation of the design software stack. ADBE and FIG would face direct comparison on growth and margin. Canva's 100% YoY enterprise growth makes ADBE's deceleration look worse.
The profitability premium
Unlike many tech IPOs, Canva has 8 consecutive profitable years. This makes S&P 500 inclusion plausible at first review (subject to dual-class structure). The 'profitable IPO' rarity should command a premium.
Australian-domicile complications
Dual NYSE/ASX listing means some US ETFs may exclude based on primary listing rules. Check VTI methodology carefully — if Canva primary-lists ASX, VTI may exclude despite NYSE secondary listing.