The day Stripe lists, 3 ETFs must buy $393.1M of it.
$1.9T in 2025 processed payments. Returned to profitability in 2024. Feb 2026 tender priced at $159B — a public listing would likely price higher. Has been the 'will they / won't they' for years.
Base case: $159.00B (Feb 2026 employee tender offer pricing). Use the slider to stress-test upside or downside scenarios.
Base case: 10%. Mega-IPOs typically float 5-15% initially. Lower float = higher demand vs supply imbalance.
Top 100 non-financial Nasdaq-listed stocks by market cap. Annual reconstitution in December. Quarterly rebalancing.
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| Ticker | Name | Old wt | New wt | Δ wt (bps) | $ outflow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA | 8.750% | 8.744% | -0.6 | -$20.7M |
| AAPL | Apple | 7.340% | 7.335% | -0.5 | -$17.3M |
| MSFT | Microsoft | 5.100% | 5.096% | -0.4 | -$12.1M |
| AMZN | Amazon | 4.720% | 4.717% | -0.3 | -$11.2M |
| MU | Micron Technology | 3.880% | 3.877% | -0.3 | -$9.2M |
| AVGO | Broadcom | 3.650% | 3.647% | -0.3 | -$8.6M |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Class A | 3.010% | 3.008% | -0.2 | -$7.1M |
| META | Meta Platforms | 2.890% | 2.888% | -0.2 | -$6.8M |
| TSLA | Tesla | 2.410% | 2.408% | -0.2 | -$5.7M |
| COST | Costco | 2.230% | 2.228% | -0.2 | -$5.3M |
Holds substantially all investable US equities. New IPOs added at quarterly rebalance after seasoning. Float-adjusted.
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| Ticker | Name | Old wt | New wt | Δ wt (bps) | $ outflow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA | 6.200% | 6.198% | -0.2 | -$8.6M |
| AAPL | Apple | 5.800% | 5.798% | -0.2 | -$8.0M |
| MSFT | Microsoft | 5.300% | 5.298% | -0.2 | -$7.4M |
| AMZN | Amazon | 3.400% | 3.399% | -0.1 | -$4.7M |
| GOOGL | Alphabet A+C | 3.200% | 3.199% | -0.1 | -$4.4M |
| META | Meta Platforms | 2.500% | 2.499% | -0.1 | -$3.5M |
| TSLA | Tesla | 1.800% | 1.799% | -0.1 | -$2.5M |
| BRK.B | Berkshire Hathaway | 1.500% | 1.500% | -0.0 | -$2.1M |
| AVGO | Broadcom | 1.400% | 1.400% | -0.0 | -$1.9M |
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase | 1.300% | 1.300% | -0.0 | -$1.8M |
Fast-track inclusion ~5 days after IPO if market cap is large enough. Held for ~2 years post-listing. Cap weight ~10%.
Show full dilution math →
| Ticker | Name | Old wt | New wt | Δ wt (bps) | $ outflow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM | Arm Holdings | 9.400% | 8.460% | -94.0 | -$1.7M |
| RDDT | 8.100% | 7.290% | -81.0 | -$1.5M | |
| KVYO | Klaviyo | 7.200% | 6.480% | -72.0 | -$1.3M |
| CRWV | CoreWeave | 6.800% | 6.120% | -68.0 | -$1.2M |
| FIG | Figma | 5.400% | 4.860% | -54.0 | -$972000 |
| BLSH | Bullish | 4.800% | 4.320% | -48.0 | -$864000 |
| KLAR | Klarna | 4.600% | 4.140% | -46.0 | -$828000 |
| CHYM | Chime | 4.100% | 3.690% | -41.0 | -$738000 |
| GEMI | Gemini | 3.800% | 3.420% | -38.0 | -$684000 |
| STUB | StubHub | 3.500% | 3.150% | -35.0 | -$630000 |
Six ETFs. Six different inclusion timelines.
Nasdaq listing + market cap easily clears Nasdaq-100 threshold. Fast-track entry possible if market cap exceeds existing constituent (top 25% rule).
Renaissance IPO ETF adds large US IPOs ~5 trading days after listing. Will likely enter as a top-3 holding given mega-cap size.
CRSP US Total Market includes all US-listed common stocks. Added at next quarterly rebalance (typ. ~30-90 day lag).
Multi-class structure historically blocks/delays inclusion (Snap precedent in 2017)
GICS Financials sector. Excluded from VGT.
Active fund — Cathie Wood's stated convictions strongly favor frontier-AI and space themes. Position size at PM discretion.
Three trades the inclusion math points to.
Largest fintech IPO since Coinbase
At $159B+ valuation, Stripe would be the most consequential fintech listing since COIN. Profitability + dual-class structure means S&P 500 inclusion is plausible at a future review — that's the second tradeable event.
Payments ecosystem rotation
Stripe's listing would force a re-valuation of public payments comps: V, MA, PYPL, ADYEN, SQ. Watch for revenue multiple compression on incumbents as Stripe sets a new private→public benchmark.
Sequoia Mark-to-Market
Sequoia, A16Z, Kleiner, and other VCs collectively hold significant Stripe stakes. Stripe listing materially affects their reported fund returns and IRR marks. The lockup expiration trade applies here at high stakes.