The day Anthropic lists, 4 ETFs must buy $879.1M of it.
Frontier AI lab. Listing timing remains speculative. Amazon and Google strategic stakes affect float dynamics.
Base case: $300.00B (Reported funding rounds, press estimates). Use the slider to stress-test upside or downside scenarios.
Base case: 10%. Mega-IPOs typically float 5-15% initially. Lower float = higher demand vs supply imbalance.
Top 100 non-financial Nasdaq-listed stocks by market cap. Annual reconstitution in December. Quarterly rebalancing.
Show full dilution math →
| Ticker | Name | Old wt | New wt | Δ wt (bps) | $ outflow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA | 8.750% | 8.738% | -1.2 | -$39.0M |
| AAPL | Apple | 7.340% | 7.330% | -1.0 | -$32.7M |
| MSFT | Microsoft | 5.100% | 5.093% | -0.7 | -$22.7M |
| AMZN | Amazon | 4.720% | 4.714% | -0.6 | -$21.0M |
| MU | Micron Technology | 3.880% | 3.875% | -0.5 | -$17.3M |
| AVGO | Broadcom | 3.650% | 3.645% | -0.5 | -$16.3M |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Class A | 3.010% | 3.006% | -0.4 | -$13.4M |
| META | Meta Platforms | 2.890% | 2.886% | -0.4 | -$12.9M |
| TSLA | Tesla | 2.410% | 2.407% | -0.3 | -$10.7M |
| COST | Costco | 2.230% | 2.227% | -0.3 | -$9.9M |
Holds substantially all investable US equities. New IPOs added at quarterly rebalance after seasoning. Float-adjusted.
Show full dilution math →
| Ticker | Name | Old wt | New wt | Δ wt (bps) | $ outflow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA | 6.200% | 6.197% | -0.3 | -$16.2M |
| AAPL | Apple | 5.800% | 5.797% | -0.3 | -$15.2M |
| MSFT | Microsoft | 5.300% | 5.297% | -0.3 | -$13.9M |
| AMZN | Amazon | 3.400% | 3.398% | -0.2 | -$8.9M |
| GOOGL | Alphabet A+C | 3.200% | 3.198% | -0.2 | -$8.4M |
| META | Meta Platforms | 2.500% | 2.499% | -0.1 | -$6.5M |
| TSLA | Tesla | 1.800% | 1.799% | -0.1 | -$4.7M |
| BRK.B | Berkshire Hathaway | 1.500% | 1.499% | -0.1 | -$3.9M |
| AVGO | Broadcom | 1.400% | 1.399% | -0.1 | -$3.7M |
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase | 1.300% | 1.299% | -0.1 | -$3.4M |
Sector classification matters. GICS reclassified Amazon, Meta, Google away from Tech years ago. SpaceX likely classified as Industrials/Aerospace, NOT Tech — so likely excluded from VGT despite being innovative.
Show full dilution math →
| Ticker | Name | Old wt | New wt | Δ wt (bps) | $ outflow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA | 18.400% | 18.369% | -3.1 | -$28.2M |
| AAPL | Apple | 15.100% | 15.075% | -2.5 | -$23.2M |
| MSFT | Microsoft | 14.200% | 14.176% | -2.4 | -$21.8M |
| AVGO | Broadcom | 6.100% | 6.090% | -1.0 | -$9.4M |
| ORCL | Oracle | 2.900% | 2.895% | -0.5 | -$4.4M |
| CRM | Salesforce | 2.400% | 2.396% | -0.4 | -$3.7M |
| CSCO | Cisco | 2.100% | 2.097% | -0.4 | -$3.2M |
| AMD | AMD | 2.000% | 1.997% | -0.3 | -$3.1M |
| ACN | Accenture | 1.900% | 1.897% | -0.3 | -$2.9M |
| ADBE | Adobe | 1.800% | 1.797% | -0.3 | -$2.8M |
Six ETFs. Six different inclusion timelines.
Nasdaq listing + market cap easily clears Nasdaq-100 threshold. Fast-track entry possible if market cap exceeds existing constituent (top 25% rule).
Renaissance IPO ETF adds large US IPOs ~5 trading days after listing. Will likely enter as a top-3 holding given mega-cap size.
CRSP US Total Market includes all US-listed common stocks. Added at next quarterly rebalance (typ. ~30-90 day lag).
Multi-class structure historically blocks/delays inclusion (Snap precedent in 2017); Profitability requirement (4 consecutive profitable GAAP quarters) likely not met
GICS classification likely Information Technology — would be added at MSCI rebalance.
Active fund — Cathie Wood's stated convictions strongly favor frontier-AI and space themes. Position size at PM discretion.
Three trades the inclusion math points to.
AI infrastructure ETF magnet
Anthropic listing at $300B+ would make it an immediate top-5 holding in any AI thematic ETF and a meaningful weight in QQQ. Combined with OpenAI, both 2026 listings would create the largest AI-concentration moment in passive-flow history.
The Amazon/Google strategic stake
AMZN's $8B Anthropic investment and Google's stake create complicated float dynamics. Some of those holdings may be locked or restricted, reducing effective public float and amplifying the supply-demand imbalance at listing.
Frontier AI lab pure-play
Anthropic offers public investors the only pure-play exposure to a frontier AI lab (OpenAI's structure remains complicated). Expect premium pricing relative to revenue multiples until a second lab lists.